The
question for CEO’s the world over is no longer “Should
my company go to India” but rather “Can my company
afford not to be in India?”
-- Shri Kamal Nath , Indian Minister of commerce & industry
Over the last ten years India has become one of the world’s
greatest economic success stories. The world biggest companies
have been investing in India for years. You only have to look
at India’s huge IT industry to realize this. However
it is not only India’s IT industry that is now creating
the growth. Almost every other sector in India is booming
including tourism, telecommunications, pharmaceutical industry,
aviation, retail, financial markets and the property market.
India’s property has been booming for a while and prices
have increased 70% over the last two years but it is only
recently that the laws were changed making it easier to invest
in Indian property.
Now is the time to invest.
Prices
are low but rising fast. Merrill Lynch has predicted a 7 fold
increase in the property market from a current value of $
12 billion in 2005 to $90 billion by 2015. This rapid growth
is why so many foreign property funds and investors are pouring
money into India. A report by property consultants Jones Lang
LaSalle estimates that US$ 10 billion foreign investment will
be injected into the Indian real estate sector in the next
12-18 months
"The dynamism shown by India in the last 15 years is
phenomenal."
Paul Wolfowitz, President, World Bank
Economic Growth
Years of financial reforms, investment in infrastructure and
huge foreign investment into the country have produced economic
growth of over 7% for the last ten years and currently 9.1%
growth this year. This phenomenal growth is expected to continue
well into the future. According to a report by Goldman Sachs
(global economics paper #99) India will sustain over 8 % growth
until 2020 and become the second largest economy in the world,
ahead of the U.S., by 2050.
"India is growing fast and everyone seems to want a piece
of the action."
Martin GrahamDirector of Market Services, London Stock Exchange
Huge Demand for Housing
Years of strong economic growth, increased mortgage lending
and a growing middle class has helped fuel a huge demand for
property in India. The demand for property is so high that
the market is struggling to meet supply. Official Indian government
figures put the shortfall in the residential sector at approx
20 million units. This acute shortage is expected to continue
due to:
• Strong economic growth expected to continue. Goldman
Sachs (global economics paper #99) expects India to become
the second largest economy in the world, ahead of the U.S.,
by 2050.
• Changing attitudes to home ownership. Once it was
save and buy. Now it is buy and pay back.
• The continued development of the mortgage market in
India. The idea of home ownership on a large scale is relatively
new to India so the mortgage market is quite underdeveloped.
Despite this mortgage lending has increased 10 fold from 2000
-2005. Mortgages currently represent just 4% of GDP. It is
much higher in other countries. Ireland for example has 28%
mortgage to GDP ratio.
• India has the largest middle class in the world and
it’s growing rapidly.
• India has an extremely favorable demographic. It has
one of the youngest populations in the world. As a result
of this by 2020, 47% of Indians will be between 15 and 59,
compared with 35% now. The working-age populations of the
U.S. and China are projected to shrink. So India is destined
to have the world's largest population of workers and consumers.
That's a big reason why Goldman, Sachs & Co. thinks India
will be able to sustain its amazing growth.
• Urbanization has increased hugely and will continue
to do so creating even more demand for housing in urban areas.
• India has the second largest population in the world
but is expected to overtake China by 2030 to become the most
populous.
• Indian society is changing and for the first time
Indian children want homes of their own.
“Rising disposable incomes, particularly
among young urban professionals and easier access to finance
is fuelling a residential boom in India.”
-- Jones Lang LaSalle
Retail Boom
The boom in Indian real estate is not restricted to the residential
market. India’s increasing affluent middle class has
created a retail revolution which is helping drive India’s
economic growth. According to the latest AT Kearney study,
for the third year in a row, India leads the annual list of
most attractive emerging markets for retail investment followed
by Russia and China.
Organised retail, which currently accounts for only 4.6 %
of the US$ 270 billion Indian retail sector, is expected to
grow at 37 % in 2007 and 42 % in 2008 (India Retail Report
2007). The report adds that organized retail in India has
the potential to add over US$ 45 billion business by the year
2010.This is expected to create a demand for 220 million square
feet of retail space by 2010. According to industry estimates,
27 million square feet of organized retail space is currently
available. The demand for commercial space doesn’t stop
at retail. There is also a huge demand for urban office space.
Industry analysts estimate India has less modern urban office
space than a single large American city
"...this is the right time to invest in India and we
will be bold on the market here."
Jeffrey Immelt, CEO and Chairman, GE Worldwide
Huge Increase In Foreign Investment
Since policy changes introduced by the Government in February
2005 allowing 100% foreign investments in construction projects
with fast-track approvals was implemented there has been a
huge amount of money invested in Indian real estate. Already
25 US investment funds are raising US$ 3.5 billion for investments
in Indian realty. Those raising the funds include Wall Street
companies such as the Blackstone Group (US$ 1 billion) Goldman
Sachs (US$ 1 billion), Citigroup Property Investors (US$ 125
million), Morgan Stanley (US$ 70 million) and GE Commercial
Finance Real Estate (US$ 63 million).Others raising funds
are JP Morgan, Warburg Pincus, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers,
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Colony Capital
and Starwood Capital.
"Here's
a country that will show massive growth. We believe India
will continue to have growing importance in the world economy,
and we are working with clients to raise capital and create
strategies that will allow them to participate in this growth."
-- Sean Wallace, Co-head of Investment Banking, JP Morgan,
Asia Pacific